LOSE ON SUNDAY, LOSE ON MONDAY

Automotive News is reporting on September 5, 2007, that August sales for Ford Motor Company (F) are off a whopping 14.4% (12.5% for the first eight months of 2007). "[T]he Mustang, which traditionally has its best sales in spring and summer, dropped 35 percent in August. The F-series truck declined 9.9 percent."

In comparison, GM was up 6.1% for August (but down 7.1% for the year). Toyota was down a trifling 2.8% for the month (but still up 4.9% for the year). Chrysler was 5.6% for the month (down 2.7% for the year). Mazda was up 11.0% for the month on relatively insignificant volume in compared to the other Asian makes (and is up 7.6% for the year).

FoMoCo’s excuses, of course, are legion. Fewer low margin fleet sales . . . Reductions in new housing starts (quelling subcontractor demand for F-Series trucks) . . . The credit crunch from problems in the "subprime" mortgage market . . . high fuel costs (even though demand for Ford’s Expedition climbed 17% in August and Land Rover’s tiny, yet fuel thirsty volume shot up 32%) . . . . GM’s aggressive incentives on its newer-than-Ford C/K pickups. . . The American Family Association Boycott . . . .

Speedzzter will throw a few more theories into the mix.

1. Obvious to everyone is FoMoCo’s long neglect of the entry-level/youth market. According to the Automotive News, Toyota’s drop resulted not from economic issues, but from lack of supply. "Sales of the Yaris small car plunged 31 percent, fueled by an unexpected demand for the three-door hatchback and a shortage of all models." Yet Ford was not positioned to take up the slack.

FoMoCo’s U.S.A. market Focus has not electrified the entry-level market and FoMoCo’s continuing erosion of market share to the Asians is undoubtedly helped along by Ford’s declining capacity to attract younger generations of customers. The de facto ceding of the entry-level market to the Asians is perhaps Detroit’s biggest failure of the past forty years (even bigger than the unsustainable contracts awarded to the United Auto Workers).

2. Ford’s failure to keep the Mustang fresh and "on the edge." While the current Mustang is iconic and Ford has delivered occasional "specials" of note (i.e. the dealer markup rape-fest known as the Shelby GT500 and the woefully underpowered/overpriced Shelby GT), FoMoCo has been "pumping against a slow leak" on the mass-market Mules.

Part of the problem is that the Mustang’s styling is now familiar and FoMoCo has done little to differentiate the new ‘Stangs from the 2005 and later used ones. Style changes have always been a premium in the sport coupe market. And some money is undoubtedly on the sidelines in anticipation of the Camaro and the Challenger.

But Ford has failed to develop a Mustang variant which can attract youth market interest AND run the parents/insurance agent gauntlet.

Ford has failed to produce a high-efficiency "green" variant of the Mustang (i.e. no trendy hybrid).

Ford for years has failed to offer anything of interest to young "import-style" tuners who love small-cube, forced induction engines and eschew "old school" V8s.

Ford has also abandoned many of the grassroots "5.0 generation," who still want the option of ordering a hot, easy-to-modify V8 and heavy-duty driveline on a lightweight, stripped-down coupe at a blue-collar price.

And Ford has not done enough to satisfy the influential "power-adder V8 pony car" niche. While the Ford Racing Performance Parts "packs" are a start, any Mustanger who wants to play at the 500+ horsepower level with a new car must be prepared to spend $65,000+ on a GT500 or spend thousands for a "boost friendly" shortblock (such as FRPP’s Aluminator).

3. Ford’s continuing failure to lead the light truck market with turbo-diesels and larger SOHC/DOHC gas power (i.e the BOSS V8) also hurts. FoMoCo’s F150 is now "old hat" in comparison to newer trucks from most competitors. Down on power and lacking factory sport variants (e.g. Lightning), the smaller Ford trucks simply do not generate much excitement anymore.

4. If there’s even a shred of truth to the old saw "win on Sunday, sell on Monday, FoMoCo’s retreat from motorsports undoubtedly has dampened sales. As late as the 1990s, Ford had a dominant presence in the upper echelons of international motorsports including Formula One, Indy cars, Trans Am-style sports cars, and even as much as almost 2/3s of the NASCAR Winston Cup entries.

But now, Ford has slashed the racing program almost to the bone.

FoMoCo’s dismal NASCAR season (only four measly wins in the Nextel Cup Series, compared to EIGHTEEN so far from Chevrolet) starkly illustrates how far the Blue Oval has fallen. Ford is in danger of finishing THIRD behind Chevrolet and Dodge in the NASCAR Nextel Cup Manufacturer’s Championship. When compared to Ford’s successes in the 1990s, it should be obvious that Ford does not have enough teams competing in NASCAR at the present. Moreover, with FoMoCo apparently not even being in the running for the two biggest prizes in NASCAR in 2007 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Joe Gibbs Racing), Ford is giving its long-suffering supporters in the grandstands little if anything to celebrate this year.

Ford’s racing problems are bigger than NASCAR.

Although Ford is winning the World Rally Championship, few in North America are remotely aware of it. (And nothing Ford has on the street in the U.S.A. is analogous to the WRC Focus RS).

More obvious is Ford’s abandonment of open wheel racing. Mazda, which took over as the sponsor of former Ford affiliate Cosworth’s engines in the Champ Car World Series, is climbing in sales as Ford sinks. Ford has been AWOL from Indianapolis 500 (which is still the most important open wheel event in America) for a decade.

Ford’s conquests in Formula One and in world class events such as the Rolex 24 at Daytona, the 12 hours of Sebring and the 24 Hours of LeMans are all but forgotten.

The grassroots isn’t much healthier. Ford captured none of the top ten positions in Hot Rod Magazine’s Pump Gas Drags in 2007. Ford continues its minuscule presence on the thousands of dirt oval tracks in the U.S. Ford’s sportsman drag racing penetration continues to lag. Few Fords of any stripe will compete at the SCCA National Runoffs (even though GM’s top racing brass will almost certainly be well represented in several classes).

The few U.S. successes for FoMoCo in competition tend to occur outside the spotlights and away from the cameras. Ford’s Grand American Mustangs almost never get any air time. Ford’s drag racing efforts are almost all sportsmen competing in the IHRA or in the insulated "Ford only" events. Ford’s off-road trucks are also seldom seen on televison or in print.

As if to illustrate Ford’s declining competition results, old reliable John Force – who remains drag racing’s most compelling personality-- failed to qualify for the Mac Tools U.S. Nationals, almost certainly dooming his chance at another NHRA Funny Car championship.

It’s clear that FoMoCo’s sales declines are the result of a complex web of factors. But let no one doubt that Ford is losing sales in part because it is failing to "Win on Sunday" and then give the fans something relevant, affordable and interesting to "Buy on Monday."