2011 CAFE STANDARD IS AN OBAMA RE-ELECTION PLAY

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The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has announced that the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard for 2011 will compute to an "industry-wide combined average [of] 27.3 miles per gallon (a 2.0 mpg increase over the 2010 model year average)" The auto portion of the CAFE average will be 30.2 m.p.g. and the truck standard will be 24.1 m.p.g.

These numbers are undoubtedly disappointing to many of Obama's "green" contributors and supporters. The greens anticipated a steeper ramp-up to the authorized 35 m.p.g. CAFE standard. They have been encouraged by the President's rhetorical frustration and "woodshedding" of "Detroit"

The 2011 CAFE standards, however, are probably somewhat of a relief to the automakers because they do not require huge immediate changes in the fleet mix.

Moreover, the UAW and the various non-environmentalist Democratic stakeholders are probably ecstatic because it reduces the potential electorial backlash from CAFE-caused market disruptions before the 2012 elections. In other words, there is less potential for legions of small business persons, soccer moms and others that would be adversely affected by a sudden reduction in the availability of larger vehicles because of regulatory concerns, to hold Obama accountable at the ballot box in 2012.

But the 2011 fuel economy standard should not be interpreted as any long-term deviation from Obama's pursuit of draconian limits on automotive freedom. It is simply typical pragmatic incrementalism, calculated to make "change" so gradual that many will not notice.