THE MAGIC “STOP McCAIN” NUMBER IS NOW 405
[NOTE: GET THE LATEST COMMENTS ON HUCKABEE'S RUN HERE (http://speedzzter.blogspot.com)]
It’s true that bona fide conservatives came up short in the “Potomac Primaries.” Of course, the “D.C. Beltway” is overwhelmingly moderate “McCain country,” so an insurgent victory there was always a long-shot.
Still, Huckabee almost pulled off the “impossible” in moderate, beltway-insider dominated Virginia.
Although the conservative talk radio "jihad" continues and Fox News repeatedly has declared Huckabee "dead," he continues to RUN HARD!
And the math strongly suggests that the race is far from over.
According to Adrian Wilcox (from mikehuckabee.com)
“John McCain has 821 Delegates leaving 370 of the remaining delegates needed to secure the nomination outright.
There are 774 delegates remaining, of which if Mike Huckabee [or others] would only have to retain 405 or 52% of the remaining delegates to force the nomination to [the] convention . . .”
Many of the delegates left to be chosen are NOT in winner-take-all states and many are in "Huckabee Country"
19-Feb Wisconsin 40
4-Mar Texas 140
4-Mar Ohio 88
4-Mar Rhode Island 20
4-Mar Vermont 17 Winner Take All
10-Mar Mississippi 39
22-Apr Pennsylvania 74
6-May North Carolina 69
6-May Indiana 57
13-May Nebraska 33
16-May Hawaii 20
20-May Kentucky 45
20-May Oregon 30
27-May Idaho 32
3-Jun New Mexico 32
3-Jun South Dakota 27
Clearly, a negotiated convention (formerly known as a “brokered convention”) remains possible. It remains critical for Huckabee to control as many delegates as he possibly could to leverage the best outcome for true social conservatives.
It's also still important for purposes of determining the vice presidential nominee, committee assignments, and the contents of the GOP platform for Huckabee to have a large block of delegates.
The best insurance of a strong, consistent social conservative platform is for Mike Huckabee to have as many delegates as possible at the GOP convention.
Finally, it’s STILL important to the future of traditional conservatism for Huckabee to appropriately position himself for a second White House bid (and to cripple Romney’s selfish schemes for such a bid).
Mike Huckabee has demonstrated himself as a loyal GOP supporter who will work for success in November. But some pundits cynically suggest that Romney is better served by teeing up another run as early as 2012– a scenario that virtually requires him to undermine any GOP success this fall.
While Huckabee would be the best nominee for traditional, consistent conservatives – if that’s not possible-- a strong Huckabee is a great asset and insurance policy for unity and victory in the fall
Despite these obvious facts, many in the elite GOP establishment question why Mike Huckabee keeps running?
The best answer to this question is provided by undoubtedly the BEST communicator in the GOP today -- Mike Huckabee himself:
“The first question I am often asked these days is: ‘Why are you still running for President?’
It is because I believe that I am the best candidate to represent you in the fall against the Democrats. Why? Because I have core conservative beliefs that I have never wavered from:
I believe in the Human Life Amendment and I will fight for it from Day 1 of my Presidency.
I believe in the Marriage Amendment.
I believe in massive tax reform and am an advocate of the FairTax.
I believe that President Bush's tax cuts should be made permanent.
I believe in the Surge, our troops and General Petraeus.
I believe the 2nd amendment is one of the best ways to protect us from tyranny and I will work tirelessly to protect it from activist judges.
I believe in real border security and have proposed a detailed 9 point plan to secure our borders.
I believe the best judge is a conservative judge that won't legislate from the bench.
These are some of the reasons why I am running for President and let me also say that YOU are another reason. I am running to give you a voice in the process. To lift up your voice with mine and to tell our Party and our government that we need to do better. We need to think big and fight for our ideas.
There’s lots of voting left to be done before our Republican Party’s nominee is decided.We are still in this race and we are running hard.”
Permalink: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Blogs.View&Blog_id=1440
[NOTE: GET THE LATEST COMMENTS ON HUCKABEE'S RUN HERE (http://speedzzter.blogspot.com)]
It’s true that bona fide conservatives came up short in the “Potomac Primaries.” Of course, the “D.C. Beltway” is overwhelmingly moderate “McCain country,” so an insurgent victory there was always a long-shot.
Still, Huckabee almost pulled off the “impossible” in moderate, beltway-insider dominated Virginia.
Although the conservative talk radio "jihad" continues and Fox News repeatedly has declared Huckabee "dead," he continues to RUN HARD!
And the math strongly suggests that the race is far from over.
According to Adrian Wilcox (from mikehuckabee.com)
“John McCain has 821 Delegates leaving 370 of the remaining delegates needed to secure the nomination outright.
There are 774 delegates remaining, of which if Mike Huckabee [or others] would only have to retain 405 or 52% of the remaining delegates to force the nomination to [the] convention . . .”
Many of the delegates left to be chosen are NOT in winner-take-all states and many are in "Huckabee Country"
19-Feb Wisconsin 40
4-Mar Texas 140
4-Mar Ohio 88
4-Mar Rhode Island 20
4-Mar Vermont 17 Winner Take All
10-Mar Mississippi 39
22-Apr Pennsylvania 74
6-May North Carolina 69
6-May Indiana 57
13-May Nebraska 33
16-May Hawaii 20
20-May Kentucky 45
20-May Oregon 30
27-May Idaho 32
3-Jun New Mexico 32
3-Jun South Dakota 27
Clearly, a negotiated convention (formerly known as a “brokered convention”) remains possible. It remains critical for Huckabee to control as many delegates as he possibly could to leverage the best outcome for true social conservatives.
It's also still important for purposes of determining the vice presidential nominee, committee assignments, and the contents of the GOP platform for Huckabee to have a large block of delegates.
The best insurance of a strong, consistent social conservative platform is for Mike Huckabee to have as many delegates as possible at the GOP convention.
Finally, it’s STILL important to the future of traditional conservatism for Huckabee to appropriately position himself for a second White House bid (and to cripple Romney’s selfish schemes for such a bid).
Mike Huckabee has demonstrated himself as a loyal GOP supporter who will work for success in November. But some pundits cynically suggest that Romney is better served by teeing up another run as early as 2012– a scenario that virtually requires him to undermine any GOP success this fall.
While Huckabee would be the best nominee for traditional, consistent conservatives – if that’s not possible-- a strong Huckabee is a great asset and insurance policy for unity and victory in the fall
Despite these obvious facts, many in the elite GOP establishment question why Mike Huckabee keeps running?
The best answer to this question is provided by undoubtedly the BEST communicator in the GOP today -- Mike Huckabee himself:
“The first question I am often asked these days is: ‘Why are you still running for President?’
It is because I believe that I am the best candidate to represent you in the fall against the Democrats. Why? Because I have core conservative beliefs that I have never wavered from:
I believe in the Human Life Amendment and I will fight for it from Day 1 of my Presidency.
I believe in the Marriage Amendment.
I believe in massive tax reform and am an advocate of the FairTax.
I believe that President Bush's tax cuts should be made permanent.
I believe in the Surge, our troops and General Petraeus.
I believe the 2nd amendment is one of the best ways to protect us from tyranny and I will work tirelessly to protect it from activist judges.
I believe in real border security and have proposed a detailed 9 point plan to secure our borders.
I believe the best judge is a conservative judge that won't legislate from the bench.
These are some of the reasons why I am running for President and let me also say that YOU are another reason. I am running to give you a voice in the process. To lift up your voice with mine and to tell our Party and our government that we need to do better. We need to think big and fight for our ideas.
There’s lots of voting left to be done before our Republican Party’s nominee is decided.We are still in this race and we are running hard.”
Permalink: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Blogs.View&Blog_id=1440
Labels: John McCain, Mike Huckabee
posted by Editor at 08:38
17 Comments:
I love the hypocrisy:
"Finally, it’s STILL important to the future of traditional conservatism for Huckabee to appropriately position himself for a second White House bid (and to cripple Romney’s selfish schemes for such a bid)."
Everyone can see nothing more selfish than Huckabee's staying in this race that he cannot win.
Mike Huckabee staying in and fighting HARD for true, traditional conservative values (and thereby forcing McCain to tack right) is hardly "selfish."
If conservatives really don't plan to rally behind McCain in 2008, Huckabee is the only chance to stop him. If Huckabee and/or Paul keeps 405 of the remaining delegates away from McCain, then its a WHOLE NEW BALLGAME where conservatives can make their voice heard "BIG TIME!"
Mitt Romney's aiming for another bloated, ham-fisted fisaco of a campaign in 2012 (which requires a GOP loss in 2008) is certaintly selfish.
Moreover, given that Romney is a proven flip-flopper with no immutable ideological tie to conservative values, nearly anything he could do (other than pledging his delegates to Huckabee) is NOT in the best interests of traditional conservatism.
Huckabee does NOT represent all conservatives -- the votes he is getting are from a religious base. The last few primaries have been close because McCain voters have been staying home, thinking that the nomination has been wrapped up and Huckabee's religious base has been showing up. Even if this gets to a contested convention, I cannot see the McCain or Romney delegates supporting Huckabee.
Lets see. Huck stays in the race (and delays any unifying of the party) to "position himself." Romney, clearly the second choice and the clear national choice of conservatives, drops out after he can see that McCain was going to be the nominee. And Romney is the selfish candidate??
You folks can't face the facts that Huckabee has marginalyzed himself and, while enjoying the "protest votes" is nothing but a fringe candidate who appeals only to a portion of evangelicals. He has a higher negative reaction among conservatives than McCain! He will NEVER be able to do anything other than siphon votes away from other conservatives.
If the Huckster stays in until the bitter end he may be able to overtake Romney in the delegate race. Wow!
"Among self-identified conservative Virginia voters, Mr. McCain trailed 35 percent to Mr. Huckabee's 51 percent."
That's more than just "evangelicals"
"He will NEVER be able to do anything other than siphon votes away from other conservatives."
Sounds like Mitt Romney . . . .
Of course this comment ignores Huckabee's wins in Iowa, West Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisana, Kansas, Tennessee . . . . states in which Huckabee "siphoned" enough votes from "other conservatives" to win outright.
Uh dr511scj, Huckabee did not siphon any conservative votes away from Romney in WV - he got those from McCain in a "back room" deal. And why does everyone talk about the WA caucus as being so close, when Louisiana was just as close percentage-wise and should have been a state in which Huckabee destroyed McCain?
Obviously, some people do not understand how a caucus works. If your first choice doesn't win or is not viable on the first ballot, then caucusers shift to their second choice.
Huckabee was the "second choice" of more voters than Romney in WV. Most certainly Romney's underwhelming campaign skills, his flip-flops and his unnecessary blitz of attack ads caused him to fail in the WV caucus.
Of course, Romney ran third in several other "Super Tuesday" states (where no "backroom deal" excuses are available), so his lack of appeal wasn't just limited to WV.
Given the $$$$$$$ Romney blew on this race (not to mention the orgy of talk radio shilling on his behalf), he should have had it wrapped up by NH. But sometimes, money isn't enough.
I guess that I must be the idiot you were referring to who doesn't "understand" how the WV caucuses worked. But I guess that I am not alone - the Huckster and his advisers certainly did not understand how the WA caucuses worked.
Do you seriously believe that Huckabee would have won the WV primary in the 2nd round had McCain not thrown his support to Huckabee?
The point of WV was that Romney didn't garner enough votes to win and, despite his "superior" organization, the overwhelming backing of GOP talk radio, and his claimed "appeal" to conservatives, Romney couldn't build a coalition to win WV.
Bottom line -- Romney: weak values; weak campaigner; weak speaker; weak image; weak leader; weak results.
McCain leads because of the failed campaigns of Romney and Thompson. NO amount of Romneyite-Limbaugh spin can change that fact.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Huckabee's continued run is about more than just his own 'selfish' reasons.
Is there an element of ego involved in his continued run for the Republican nomination? Absolutely. Has there ever been a candidate who got in it only 'for the people'?
I believe the main reason that Huckabee is staying in the race is to make sure that McCain and the Establishment realize that we the 'value voters' of America are still a force to be reckoned with and that our issues are still important to us. McCain and company during the last few years have tried to ram Embryonic Stem Cell Research down our throats. Thank God that George Bush is truly pro-life and not shall I say 'PLINO' (Pro-life in name only) ala McCain and some of the other Republican Senators.
More comments on that issue:
Why John McCain
I am totally convinced that John McCain will be the greatest president since Regan. The blog owner has graciously allowed my posts here. The Huck v McCain campain is truly different from the rest. Anyone in either camp can see this. Both candidates have elevated the discourse. I beleive the respect both ways is genuine and this in turn has shown great respect to the people.
To be honest, I don't know why Huck is still running, I don't understand it. But I also don't understand how he can not believe in evolution. I don't disrespect him for this. There are many people and ideas I don't understand and that's ok.
I don't think the math supports that there is much posability of a brokered convention. I also don't know what point that would serve. If the vast popular vote supports McCain then he should get the nomination. Tinkering with this will result in the issues the Dems have now. Even if it was brokered I highly doubt that Huck would win.
That said; As long as the tone remains as it has been, there is nothing but up side. The more the hard liners reject McCain the more electible he is in the General. Huck running keeps the news covering the show.
I really do like Huck and see he has potential to be a powerhouse in the future. I fully would support him in the VP slot. This experience would fill in the area where he is empty, like forien policy. There is not a compelling reason for him to be president now.
Thanks again for letting me comment.
Well, I respect your right to believe in evolution. However, many reasons, too many to mention here, NOT to accept it as a scientific fact...or even a science at all...
If McCain thinks reaching out and earning the conservative vote is considered pandering...well, we are truly in great trouble.
Until he proves himself...I hope Huckabee can cause a brokered convention.
I actually met and campaigned for Ronald Reagan. John McCain is nowhere even close to being the leader Reagan was... and even by certain standards our current President has shown much more strength, courage & leadership than Ronald Reagan had shown.
I know its hard to think back for some of you but remember towards the end when Reagan was just asleep at the switch??? Literally???
So, if you are ready to sell your soul for McCain have at it...we are all going down in flames.
Paul Huber
IS ROMNEY'S ALLEGED ENDORSEMENT OF McCAIN THE ULTIMATE FLIP-FLOP?
Matt Drudge and Breitbart are reporting that the Gucci Chameleon, "Slick Willard" Mitt Romney will disenfranchise millions of primary voters by attempting to swing his delegate block over to John McCain today.
The pundits will gleefully now declare that McCain + Romney = 1191. Game over.
They will champion a triumph of Wall Street and the country club over Main Street and the countryside.
They will celebrate the "end" of Mike Huckabee's brilliant insurgency and declare him "dead" as a force in the GOP forevermore.
If the reports are true, Romney's "Valentine's Day Massacre" of democracy ought to prove a number of things to GOP conservatives.
Hopefully, all of the conservatives who drank the "talk radio Kool-aide" by supporting Romney as the "great conservative hope" will now see that their "anti-McCain" savior is nothing more than a political opportunist.
Romney, as it turns out, was nothing more than a decoy to stop Mike Huckabee and propel John McCain to the nomination.
Romney is about to commit the "ultimate" flip-flop: from flame-throwing McCain critic to sycophantic McCain lap-dog.
Romney spent millions trashing McCain on television and radio.
Romney ripped at McCain in the debates.
Romney claimed McCain wasn't qualified to lead America on economic matters.
Romney claimed that "Washington was broken" and that McCain was part of the problem, not the solution.
But now, Romney wants all of us to forget all of that crazy talk from "Romney 1.0, Romney 2.0 and Romney 3.0 . . . ." in favor of a new, Romney-enforced "party unity."
Romney's latest flip-flop proves he wasn't sincere or honest about his opposition to McCain. It proves that the "Blue State Republicans and the Rockefeller wing of the GOP will stop at nothing to disenfranchise the Southern bedrock voters of the modern GOP.
(Speedzzter supposes we won't hear any more "sour grapes" about the alleged "dirty" backroom deal that the Romney-ians claim gave Mike Huckabee the win in West Virginia. Romney's craven maneuver to short-circuit the vote of Texas and a dozen other states makes whatever happened in West Virginia pale in comparison.)
Speedzzter supposes we also won't hear any more from the various paid media Romney shills, such as Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Hugh Hewitt, Glen Beck, etc. about how Romney is the great conservative legatee to Ronald Reagan and the ONE who could have stopped McCain.
But one thing that the Romney-ians can never take from Mike Huckabee. Huckabee won the primaries in the places that a viable GOP candidate MUST WIN.
The only places Mitt Romney could buy with his huge checkbook were states dominated by his LDS religion, a few Western caucus states (where organization produced results), and states in which he had family ties.
For all of his money and machinations, Romney never proved he could win in the bulk of the Red States -- even against a less that perfect GOP field.
So much for all of Romney's "future of the GOP" rhetoric. It's now just another discarded Romney persona (among the many).
Just another flip-flop in a political lifetime of flip-flops.
In other words, vintage Romney.
All voters deserve to vote. This is America, after all. I think Huckabee has a perfect right, even an obligation, to stay in the race. Otherwise, how about we change the rules of the game next time 'round and elect to have each state hold its primary/caucus on Super Tuesday. Those in the 'not yet voting' states have a right to vote. Huckabee is correct for this reason alone. I live in CT, but if I were in TX, I'd be rip roaring mad it my vote was taken from me. In fact, I think when a candidate signs up to run, he/she should be required to finish the race, barring no unforeseen circumstances cause him/her to quit. Quitters never win and winners never quit. Old adage...yup, and it still rings true.
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